A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
